The ARCE (Association de Recherche sur le Climat et l'Environnement), an association of research structures based in Algeria, led by Pr. Mohamed Senouci, took the initiative to study the water resources in Maghreb and its evolution under Mediterranean climate change conditions.
Almost the whole Maghreb region is characterised by a low rain regime, occurring mainly in winter, and hot summers favouring an intense evaporation and evapotranspiration. The interannual variability is high and difficult to predict. The water resource scarcity also exhibit a large geographic variability: about 80% of the surface water is flowing from Northern Atlas and coastal zones. Specific phenomena such as intense erosion tend to fill dams with sediments and reduce the open water reservoirs capacity. In addition, most of the climate change regional scenarios tend to forecast a lower precipitation regime in the Southern Mediterranean rim, as well as a higher evaporation. These results exhibit a large variability and remain somehow uncertain.
Considering the water needs for irrigation (almost 90% nowadays), drinking and domestic use of countries facing a large population growth, the combination of all these factors may lead to a very severe socio-economic situation in the forthcoming years.
These issues need to be addressed in a prospective and international perspective.
The ARCE studies so not start from scratch. Nevertheless, there is a strong need to consolidate and
widen the scope of the studies, involving the widest regional and world-wide community.
ARCE, supported by several institutions and donors decided to organise an international scientific forum on climate forecast and strategic management of water resources in Maghreb. The objectives are to asses the state of the art in that domain, define an unified and dedicated approach, make these results known by scientists, users and policy makers, set up a research program, define an evaluation framework, strengthen the regional experts network and capacity building. The main scientific issues addressed by the forum are : the global climate system, the regional climate variability, the temperature and rainfall seasonal and climatic forecasting, the surface and underground hydrological systems, the hydrological modelling, the coupling between climate and hydrological systems, the socio-economic aspects, the impacts in terms of agriculture monitoring, the regional and international programs, and in technological terms the integration through GIS.
Obviously, such an initiative is quite in line with the RICAMARE objectives, conclusions and recommendations. Addressing these issues on a sub-regional basis appeared as an excellent opportunity to set up a dedicated RICAMARE "sub-network". So, the last RICAMARE Committee (Istanbul, June 18-19), endorsed that initiative, which should launch the "sub-regional network" activity according to the overall post-RICAMARE strategy.
This international scientific forum, "Climate prediction and Strategic Water Resources management in the Maghreb" took place in Adrar, Algeria. September 24 - 26, 2001. It issued an important document, "l'appel d'Adrar" (the "Adrar call" in English), which underlines the links between this initiative and the post-RICAMARE action plan and its managing principles.